Browsing by Author "Kibambila, Vicent"

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    A comparative analysis of the application of seasonal ARIMA and exponential smoothing methods in short run forecasting tourist arrivals in Tanzania
    (IISTE, 2017) Lwesya, Francis; Kibambila, Vicent
    This paper compared the performance of two forecasting models (Seasonal ARIMA and Exponential smoothing) in an attempt to identify the model that fits properly in forecasting tourist arrivals in a dynamic tourism industry in Tanzania. A two-staged approach to forecasting was carried out using monthly data for the period of 2000 to 2009. The models were assessed in similarly structured setting at the outset, and then best models identified at this level were compared in a differently structured setting. The results show that Seasonal ARIMA(4,1,4)(3,1,4)12 and Holt-Winters multiplicative smoothing method are effective in forecasting tourist arrivals in Tanzania in a similarly structured setting. However, when the two models were compared under different structures, the performance of Holt-Winters multiplicative smoothing method outstripped that of Seasonal ARIMA(4,1,4)(3,1,4)12. This suggests that Holt-Winters multiplicative smoothing method with Alpha (0.01), Delta (0.11) and Gamma (0.11) is more effective in forecasting tourist arrivals in Tanzania in the short run and it can be used to aid planning processes in the tourism industry. Moreover, the seasonality pattern that characterizes tourist arrivals in Tanzania highlights the need to promote more of local tourism so as to lessen the negative impacts associated with it.
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    A comparative analysis of the application of seasonal ARIMA and exponential smoothing methods in short run forecasting tourist arrivals in Tanzania
    (IISTE, 2017) Lwesya, Francis; Kibambila, Vicent
    This paper compared the performance of two forecasting models (Seasonal ARIMA and Exponential smoothing) in an attempt to identify the model that fits properly in forecasting tourist arrivals in a dynamic tourism industry in Tanzania. A two-staged approach to forecasting was carried out using monthly data for the period of 2000 to 2009. The models were assessed in similarly structured setting at the outset, and then best models identified at this level were compared in a differently structured setting. The results show that Seasonal ARIMA (4,1,4) (3,1,4)12 and Holt-Winters multiplicative smoothing method are effective in forecasting tourist arrivals in Tanzania in a similarly structured setting. However, when the two models were compared under different structures, the performance of Holt-Winters multiplicative smoothing method outstripped that of Seasonal ARIMA(4,1,4)(3,1,4)12. This suggests that Holt-Winters multiplicative smoothing method with Alpha (0.01), Delta (0.11) and Gamma (0.11) is more effective in forecasting tourist arrivals in Tanzania in the short run and it can be used to aid planning processes in the tourism industry. Moreover, the seasonality pattern that characterizes tourist arrivals in Tanzania highlights the need to promote more of local tourism so as to lessen the negative impacts associated with it.
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    A comparative analysis of the application of seasonal ARIMA and exponential smoothing methods in short run Forecasting Tourist Arrivals in Tanzania
    (European Open Science Publishing, 2017) Lwesya, Francis; Kibambila, Vicent
    This paper compared the performance of two forecasting models (Seasonal ARIMA and Exponential smoothing) in an attempt to identify the model that fits properly in forecasting tourist arrivals in a dynamic tourism industry in Tanzania. A two-staged approach to forecasting was carried out using monthly data for the period of 2000 to 2009. The models were assessed in similarly structured setting at the outset, and then best models identified at this level were compared in a differently structured setting. The results show that Seasonal ARIMA(4,1,4)(3,1,4)12 and Holt-Winters multiplicative smoothing method are effective in forecasting tourist arrivals in Tanzania in a similarly structured setting. However, when the two models were compared under different structures, the performance of Holt-Winters multiplicative smoothing method outstripped that of Seasonal ARIMA(4,1,4)(3,1,4)12. This suggests that Holt-Winters multiplicative smoothing method with Alpha (0.01), Delta (0.11) and Gamma (0.11) is more effective in forecasting tourist arrivals in Tanzania in the short run and it can be used to aid planning processes in the tourism industry. Moreover, the seasonality pattern that characterizes tourist arrivals in Tanzania highlights the need to promote more of local tourism so as to lessen the negative impacts associated with it.
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    Perceptions and demand for health insurance services offered under National Health Insurance Fund (NHIF) scheme among civil servants in Tanzania
    (International Institute for Science, Technology and Education (IISTE), 2017) Kibambila, Vicent
    This paper examines the perceptions and demand for health insurance services offered under NHIF scheme in Tanzania. It examines the perceptions of civil servants, the factors influencing perceptions and their implications to the demand for health insurance services. The study used a cross sectional survey design which allowed collection of data in a particular place at once and within a short time. A sample of 250 civil servants from two strata (secondary school teachers and National Audit Office of Tanzania (NAOT) employees constituting 117 and 133 respectively) was obtained using stratified random sampling technique. The study used descriptive and econometric techniques to analyse the data. The results indicate that age, marital status and education have an influence on the perceptions of the quality of health services. Furthermore, sex, education and distance were found to influence the perceptions on the availability of health services. For the demand for health insurance services, age, sex, education, waiting time and perception on the quality of health services were found to be significant. Moreover, the findings show that most of the respondents (75.6 percent) reported poor health services offered under NHIF scheme. This means majority of the civil servants in Tanzania receive relatively poor health services at the accredited health facilities. The study recommends a review of the Act 8 of 1999 that established NHIF scheme in order to make civil servants enjoy the freedom of choosing the health insurance scheme of their test. It is imperative for the scheme to improve the quality of health services rendered in order to encourage new entrants and preserve customers’ royalty. The services offered should be not only inviting and attractive but also should meet the customers’ needs. To achieve this, the scheme should allow all accredited health facilities with the capacity (in terms of both material and human resources) to offer the services to NHIF customers
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    Perceptions and demand for health insurance services offered under national health insurance fund (NHIF) scheme among civil servants in Tanzania
    (Emerald Publishing, 2017) Kibambila, Vicent
    This paper examines the perceptions and demand for health insurance services offered under NHIF scheme in Tanzania. It examines the perceptions of civil servants, the factors influencing perceptions and their implications to the demand for health insurance services. The study used a cross sectional survey design which allowed collection of data in a particular place at once and within a short time. A sample of 250 civil servants from two strata (secondary school teachers and National Audit Office of Tanzania (NAOT) employees constituting 117 and 133 respectively) was obtained using stratified random sampling technique. The study used descriptive and econometric techniques to analyse the data. The results indicate that age, marital status and education have an influence on the perceptions of the quality of health services. Furthermore, sex, education and distance were found to influence the perceptions on the availability of health services. For the demand for health insurance services, age, sex, education, waiting time and perception on the quality of health services were found to be significant. Moreover, the findings show that most of the respondents (75.6 percent) reported poor health services offered under NHIF scheme. This means majority of the civil servants in Tanzania receive relatively poor health services at the accredited health facilities. The study recommends a review of the Act 8 of 1999 that established NHIF scheme in order to make civil servants enjoy the freedom of choosing the health insurance scheme of their test. It is imperative for the scheme to improve the quality of health services rendered in order to encourage new entrants and preserve customers’ royalty. The services offered should be not only inviting and attractive but also should meet the customers’ needs. To achieve this, the scheme should allow all accredited health facilities with the capacity (in terms of both material and human resources) to offer the services to NHIF customers.
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    Perceptions and demand for health insurance services offered under national health insurance fund (NHIF) scheme among civil servants in Tanzania
    (IISTE, 2017) Kibambila, Vicent
    This paper examines the perceptions and demand for health insurance services offered under NHIF scheme in Tanzania. It examines the perceptions of civil servants, the factors influencing perceptions and their implications to the demand for health insurance services. The study used a cross sectional survey design which allowed collection of data in a particular place at once and within a short time. A sample of 250 civil servants from two strata (secondary school teachers and National Audit Office of Tanzania (NAOT) employees constituting 117 and 133 respectively) was obtained using stratified random sampling technique. The study used descriptive and econometric techniques to analyse the data. The results indicate that age, marital status and education have an influence on the perceptions of the quality of health services. Furthermore, sex, education and distance were found to influence the perceptions on the availability of health services. For the demand for health insurance services, age, sex, education, waiting time and perception on the quality of health services were found to be significant. Moreover, the findings show that most of the respondents (75.6 percent) reported poor health services offered under NHIF scheme. This means majority of the civil servants in Tanzania receive relatively poor health services at the accredited health facilities. The study recommends a review of the Act 8 of 1999 that established NHIF scheme in order to make civil servants enjoy the freedom of choosing the health insurance scheme of their test. It is imperative for the scheme to improve the quality of health services rendered in order to encourage new entrants and preserve customers’ royalty. The services offered should be not only inviting and attractive but also should meet the customers’ needs. To achieve this, the scheme should allow all accredited health facilities with the capacity (in terms of both material and human resources) to offer the services to NHIF customers.
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    The role of ICT in facilitating farmers’ accessibility to extension services and marketing of agricultural produce: the case of maize in Mbozi district, Tanzania
    (Premier Publisher, 2017) Lwesya, Francis; Kibambila, Vicent
    The rapid pace of ICT development and its consequent use across economic, social and political spectrums has raised concerns among policy makers and practitioners over its potential to spur productivity in the agriculture sector as well. This paper examines the role that ICT can play in facilitating smallholder farmers’ accessibility to extension services and marketing of agricultural produce in Mbozi District. The study used structured questionnaires to collect information. A sample of 250 farmers was selected randomly and interviewed.The findings reveal that farmers are using ICT facilities to get access to extension services and in marketing maize in Mbozi District. The most preferred and major ICT tools used to inquire and receive extension services and market information are the mobile phones (53.88%), radio (23.67%), television (14.69%) and the internet (7.75%). However, effective use of ICT in the study area is constrained by poor infrastructure in rural areas, and lack of technical know-how exhibited in the lack of basic ICT skills. Other constraints are the erratic power supply, poor signals, lack of network, and lack of internet connectivity and a high cost of some ICT tools. This suggests that if requisite ICT infrastructures are put in place in Mbozi District, ICT can bring about significant benefits to smallholder farmers leading to increased agricultural productivity and hence poverty reduction. Thus, the study recommends promoting investment in renewable energy sources in order to address the problem of power in rural areas. Creating an enabling environment for ICT services accessibility, including the construction of transport and communication network infrastructures. The establishment of market information centers and telecenters in Mbozi District particularly in rural areas and advocating for the use of collective marketing through strengthened farmers groups to ease their access to ICT facilities.
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    The role of ICT in facilitating farmers’ accessibility to extension services and marketing of agricultural produce: The case of Maize in Mbozi District, Tanzania
    (Premier Publishers., 2017) Lwesya, Francis; Kibambila, Vicent
    The rapid pace of ICT development and its consequent use across economic, social and political spectrums has raised concerns among policy makers and practitioners over its potential to spur productivity in the agriculture sector as well. This paper examines the role that ICT can play in facilitating smallholder farmers’ accessibility to extension services and marketing of agricultural produce in Mbozi District. The study used structured questionnaires to collect information. A sample of 250 farmers was selected randomly and interviewed.The findings reveal that farmers are using ICT facilities to get access to extension services and in marketing maize in Mbozi District. The most preferred and major ICT tools used to inquire and receive extension services and market information are the mobile phones (53.88%), radio (23.67%), television (14.69%) and the internet (7.75%). However, effective use of ICT in the study area is constrained by poor infrastructure in rural areas, and lack of technical know-how exhibited in the lack of basic ICT skills. Other constraints are the erratic power supply, poor signals, lack of network, and lack of internet connectivity and a high cost of some ICT tools. This suggests that if requisite ICT infrastructures are put in place in Mbozi District, ICT can bring about significant benefits to smallholder farmers leading to increased agricultural productivity and hence poverty reduction. Thus, the study recommends promoting investment in renewable energy sources in order to address the problem of power in rural areas. Creating an enabling environment for ICT services accessibility, including the construction of transport and communication network infrastructures. The establishment of market information centers and telecenters in Mbozi District particularly in rural areas and advocating for the use of collective marketing through strengthened farmers groups to ease their access to ICT facilities.