Browsing by Author "Kibonge, A. A."

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    Modelling transmission dynamics of Mumps infection with some Interventions
    (The University of Dodoma, 2023) Kibonge, A. A.
    Mumps is a viral disease caused by the mumps virus. The disease affects any age group of humans, but it is so prominent in children and adults. The current study investigates a nonlinear deterministic model of mumps transmission dynamics with double-dose vaccination, public health education campaigns, and quarantine control strategies. It is aimed to examine the role of double-dose vaccination, public health education campaigns, and quarantine in reducing disease transmission. The effective reproduction number (Re) is computed via next-generation matrix approach. Moreover, sensitivity analysis is carried through Re to study the effect of model parameters on Re. Results showed that Re is more sensitive to first-dose vaccine efficacy, proportion of vaccinated immigrants with first-dose, per capita birth rate, and transmission rate for symptomatic infectious individuals. Thus, in order to minimize mumps transmission from the community, these parameters should be closely monitored. In addition, stability analysis of DFE and EE points is performed to study the behavior of the disease. Local and global stability of the DFE point is investigated by using the Routh-Hurwitz criteria and Lyapunov function technique respectively, the results show that DFE is locally asymptotically stable if Re <1 and is globally stable if Re <1. Similarly, the global stability of the EE point is established through Lyapunov function, and results show that it is globally asymptotically stable whenever Re > 1. The numerical results of the model show that the number of mumps infections decreases when at least a single control intervention is applied efficiently. Furthermore, the findings indicate that, the most effective strategy of reducing mumps transmission in the community is the combination of three interventions namely; double-dose vaccination, public health education campaigns, and quarantines. Therefore, it is important to opt for the multiple strategy to minimize the number of mumps infections from the community.