Modelling probability of loan repayment in local government authorities (LGAs): a case study of Kahama district
| dc.contributor.author | Charles, D. | |
| dc.date.accessioned | 2024-03-12T11:23:30Z | |
| dc.date.available | 2024-03-12T11:23:30Z | |
| dc.date.issued | 2023 | |
| dc.description | Dissertation (MSc Statistics) | |
| dc.description.abstract | As one of the strategies to eradicate poverty, the government of Tanzania introduced the programme of loan provision to Women, Youth and People with Disabilities (PWDs). Despite the good intention of the government, some of borrowers lack the willingness and the ability to make a full repayment in their loan. This affects the Local Government Authorities (LGAs) to be sustainable in loan provision for the future plan. Mainly, this study aimed at modeling the loan repayment probability in LGAs. Specifically, this study intended to determine the determinants that affect the group loan borrowers, analyze the equality of performance of group loan repayment and determine the probability of group loan repayment in the selected LGAs. The study used secondary data of 683 loan borrowers collected from Kahama Municipal Council (KMC), Ushetu District Council (UDC) and Msalala District Council (MDC). Five (5) variables namely loan amount, group location, group size, time given for repayment, and group type were used to model the probability of loan repayment using logistic regression and to analyze the determinants that affect group loan repayment using Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) model. The equality of performance of loan repayment was analyzed by the Kruskal Wallis H test. Based on logistic regression findings; the study shows that only group type (with p = 0.038 and p=0.075 for women and youth respectively as compared to PWDs), time given for repayment (with p= 0.02 for 2 years as compared to 1 year) and location of group borrowers (with p=0.082) are significantly associated with the probability of loan repayment. The probability of non-default decreases for groups from villages as compared to groups from towns. Groups with 1 year of repayment have low non-default probability than groups with 2 years of repayment. The probability of non-default is low for PWDs than for women and youth. This study recommends that in order to improve loan repayment in the study area, group borrowers should be given at least two (2) years time of loan repayment. The recommended time reduce the risk of default. The LGAs also, have to closely supervise group loan borrowers from village areas and PWDs so as to reduce the default probability from these groups. | |
| dc.identifier.citation | Charles, D. (2023). Modelling probability of loan repayment in local government authorities (lgas): a case study of Kahama district, (Master's Dissertation) The University of Dodoma. | |
| dc.identifier.uri | https://repository.udom.ac.tz/handle/20.500.12661/4270 | |
| dc.language.iso | en | |
| dc.publisher | The University of Dodoma | |
| dc.title | Modelling probability of loan repayment in local government authorities (LGAs): a case study of Kahama district | |
| dc.type | Thesis |