Browsing by Author "Lwesya, Francis"
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Item A comparative analysis of the application of seasonal ARIMA and exponential smoothing methods in short run forecasting tourist arrivals in Tanzania(IISTE, 2017) Lwesya, Francis; Kibambila, VicentThis paper compared the performance of two forecasting models (Seasonal ARIMA and Exponential smoothing) in an attempt to identify the model that fits properly in forecasting tourist arrivals in a dynamic tourism industry in Tanzania. A two-staged approach to forecasting was carried out using monthly data for the period of 2000 to 2009. The models were assessed in similarly structured setting at the outset, and then best models identified at this level were compared in a differently structured setting. The results show that Seasonal ARIMA(4,1,4)(3,1,4)12 and Holt-Winters multiplicative smoothing method are effective in forecasting tourist arrivals in Tanzania in a similarly structured setting. However, when the two models were compared under different structures, the performance of Holt-Winters multiplicative smoothing method outstripped that of Seasonal ARIMA(4,1,4)(3,1,4)12. This suggests that Holt-Winters multiplicative smoothing method with Alpha (0.01), Delta (0.11) and Gamma (0.11) is more effective in forecasting tourist arrivals in Tanzania in the short run and it can be used to aid planning processes in the tourism industry. Moreover, the seasonality pattern that characterizes tourist arrivals in Tanzania highlights the need to promote more of local tourism so as to lessen the negative impacts associated with it.Item An assessment of spatial integration for major wholesale rice markets in Tanzania(Greener Journals, 2016) Lwesya, FrancisThe study explored the extent of market integration in six selected rice markets of Tanzania, these include one major consumption market, three surplus and two deficit markets using monthly wholesale price data from January 2004 to December 2012. The data were analyzed using Johansen co-integration and Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). The study reveals that in the long run, the markets are co-integrated. There exist four bidirectional causal relationships and eleven unidirectional relationships among markets. Dar-Es-Salaam, a major consumption market has bidirectional granger causality with Mtwara which is a deficit market and recorded a unidirectional relationship with the rest markets. Other pairs of markets with bidirectional relationships among them are Mbeya-Mtwara; Morogoro-Dodoma and Dodoma- Shinyanga. The result of VECM is significant and negative and the rate at which VECM restores deviation from equilibrium is at 60 percent which is slightly higher. The impulse response function results show that if one standard error shock is imposed to a market, its effects dissipate between two to six months. In terms of the forecast error variance decomposition (FEVD), the results show that the predominant sources of price fluctuations across markets are largely due to own shocks and Dar-es-salaam market, to a very small degree, shocks are coming from the rest markets. This implies that Dar-es-salaam market as a major consumption market influences the price behavior of rice markets in Tanzania and can be used to predict future prices. Based on these study findings, the government can use market-based policies for food security since rice markets are integrated so that the effect of policy intervention in one market would be transmitted to other markets.Item A comparative analysis of the application of seasonal ARIMA and exponential smoothing methods in short run forecasting tourist arrivals in Tanzania(IISTE, 2017) Lwesya, Francis; Kibambila, VicentThis paper compared the performance of two forecasting models (Seasonal ARIMA and Exponential smoothing) in an attempt to identify the model that fits properly in forecasting tourist arrivals in a dynamic tourism industry in Tanzania. A two-staged approach to forecasting was carried out using monthly data for the period of 2000 to 2009. The models were assessed in similarly structured setting at the outset, and then best models identified at this level were compared in a differently structured setting. The results show that Seasonal ARIMA (4,1,4) (3,1,4)12 and Holt-Winters multiplicative smoothing method are effective in forecasting tourist arrivals in Tanzania in a similarly structured setting. However, when the two models were compared under different structures, the performance of Holt-Winters multiplicative smoothing method outstripped that of Seasonal ARIMA(4,1,4)(3,1,4)12. This suggests that Holt-Winters multiplicative smoothing method with Alpha (0.01), Delta (0.11) and Gamma (0.11) is more effective in forecasting tourist arrivals in Tanzania in the short run and it can be used to aid planning processes in the tourism industry. Moreover, the seasonality pattern that characterizes tourist arrivals in Tanzania highlights the need to promote more of local tourism so as to lessen the negative impacts associated with it.Item A comparative analysis of the application of seasonal ARIMA and exponential smoothing methods in short run Forecasting Tourist Arrivals in Tanzania(European Open Science Publishing, 2017) Lwesya, Francis; Kibambila, VicentThis paper compared the performance of two forecasting models (Seasonal ARIMA and Exponential smoothing) in an attempt to identify the model that fits properly in forecasting tourist arrivals in a dynamic tourism industry in Tanzania. A two-staged approach to forecasting was carried out using monthly data for the period of 2000 to 2009. The models were assessed in similarly structured setting at the outset, and then best models identified at this level were compared in a differently structured setting. The results show that Seasonal ARIMA(4,1,4)(3,1,4)12 and Holt-Winters multiplicative smoothing method are effective in forecasting tourist arrivals in Tanzania in a similarly structured setting. However, when the two models were compared under different structures, the performance of Holt-Winters multiplicative smoothing method outstripped that of Seasonal ARIMA(4,1,4)(3,1,4)12. This suggests that Holt-Winters multiplicative smoothing method with Alpha (0.01), Delta (0.11) and Gamma (0.11) is more effective in forecasting tourist arrivals in Tanzania in the short run and it can be used to aid planning processes in the tourism industry. Moreover, the seasonality pattern that characterizes tourist arrivals in Tanzania highlights the need to promote more of local tourism so as to lessen the negative impacts associated with it.Item Customer service quality management in public transport: the case of rail transport in Tanzania(Faculty of Business Economics and Entrepreneurship, 2017) Lwesya, Francis; Jaffu, RichardThe main objective of the study was to assess customer service quality management by taking into account the factors affecting the service quality in rail transport sector. To achieve the study objectives, we use descriptive statistics and regression analysis. We adopted a dual pronged view of internal customers (employees) and external customers (clients) by focusing on the skills and qualifications of customer contact personnel in service encounters, incentives, staff training, working tools and other operational facilities. For the case of external customers, quality service dimensions as synthesized in SERVQUAL model were used. The results show that customers' expectations of service quality are accurately predicted by service providers along each of the service quality dimensions except the reliability dimension. This shows that there is a gap between service delivered and external communication of rail transport services and this difference is related to the performance of the promised service accurately and dependably. This gap seemed to be attributed to by the shortage of working tools, aging equipments and other operational facilities on the part of customer contact personnel thereby distracting clients in assessing rail transport services and thus creating the difference on what is expected by clients and what is really provided by service providers. Thus, the study recommends incorporating total quality management in the delivery of rail transport services. Working tools and other operational facilities should be provided to employees in order to enhance performance and job satisfaction. Employees particularly the customer contact personnel should be regularly trained to keep them abreast with current trends in clients handling techniques consistent to meeting their requirements and wants. Drawing lessons from other competitors like what is happening in road transport or air transport will help setting quality standards.Item Customer service quality management in public transport: the case of rail transport in Tanzania(Centre for Evaluation in Education and Science (CEON/CEES), 2017) Lwesya, Francis; Jaffu, RichardThe main objective of the study was to assess customer service quality management by taking into account the factors affecting the service quality in rail transport sector. To achieve the study objectives, we use descriptive statistics and regression analysis. We adopted a dual pronged view of internal customers (employees) and external customers (clients) by focusing on the skills and qualifications of customer contact personnel in service encounters, incentives, staff training, working tools and other operational facilities. For the case of external customers, quality service dimensions as synthesized in SERVQUAL model were used. The results show that customers’ expectations of service quality are accurately predicted by service providers along each of the service quality dimensions except the reliability dimension. This shows that there is a gap between service delivered and external communication of rail transport services and this difference is related to the performance of the promised service accurately and dependably. This gap seemed to be attributed to by the shortage of working tools, aging equipment’s and other operational facilities on the part of customer contact personnel thereby distracting clients in assessing rail transport services and thus creating the difference on what is expected by clients and what is really provided by service providers. Thus, the study recommends incorporating total quality management in the delivery of rail transport services. Working tools and other operational facilities should be provided to employees in order to enhance performance and job satisfaction. Employees particularly the customer contact personnel should be regularly trained to keep them abreast with current trends in clients handling techniques consistent to meeting their requirements and wants. Drawing lessons from other competitors like what is happening in road transport or air transport will help setting quality standards.Item Determinants of leather and leather products exports in Tanzania(Editura Universitară & ADI Publication, 2018) Lwesya, FrancisThis study examines the determinants of Leather and Leather products Exports in Tanzania. We apply Ordinary Least Square (OLS) analysis on time series data from 1980 to 2015. The findings show that export of raw hides and skins, and high costs of production are among the deterring factors to leather and leather products export in Tanzania. Export of raw hides and skins and costs of production recorded negative and significant relationship with leather exports. On the other hand, hides and skins collection recorded insignificant relationship while leather price in the world market had negative and significant relationship with leather exports. This suggests that other factors such as low quality of leather and leather products exported, inadequate capital investment, stiff competition with foreign companies for hides and skins and inadequate market information explain the state of current Tanzania’s leather exports. Thus, attracting local and Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in the leather subsector by providing friendly investment climate and addressing the supply side constraints will enable increased high quality leather and leather products diversification and exports.Item Export diversification and poverty reduction in Tanzania(Mihaela Belu, 2018) Lwesya, FrancisThe objective of the study was to explore the role of export diversification in poverty reduction strategies following recent growth of non-traditional exports and its perceived potential to contain poverty in Tanzania. Real income per capita growth was used to proxy poverty reduction. Applying Toda and Yamamoto (1995) causality test model on time series yearly data (1980-2015), the results show the existence of a uni-directional causal relationship between horizontal export diversification and income per capita growth in Tanzania. The relationship between vertical export diversification and income per capita growth was found to be insignificant. The possible explanation is country’s weak industrial base. Drawing lessons from East Asia and some other African countries, it was found that deep horizontal export diversification and vertical export diversification were significant factors in enhancing income per capita growth. However, in East Asia income per capita growth led by vertical export diversification was more impressive than that of horizontal export diversification in addressing poverty. Thus, the study argues that export diversification could contribute towards poverty reduction initiatives in Tanzania. However, to enable it generate significant impacts in form of reduced poverty an integrated package of policies and strategies need to be put in place in order to spearhead both deep horizontal and vertical export diversifications in Tanzania.Item Frontiers in microfnance research for small and medium enterprises (SMEs) and microfnance institutions (MFIs): a bibliometric analysis(Springer Open, 2023) Lwesya, Francis; Mwakalobo, Adam Beni SwebeThis article aims to present current research trends in microfnance for small and medium enterprises (SMEs) and microfnance institutions (MFIs), as microfnance plays an increasingly role in entrepreneurship development and poverty alleviation. The study uses a bibliometric analysis, in this work, we performed citation, bibliographic coupling, and keyword evolution analyses. The results show that research in microfnance for SMEs and microfnance institutions continue to grow. The authors found that recent research in microfnance for SMEs and microfnance institutions has evolved around eight thematic clusters, covering (1) access to and constraints on microcredit for SMEs (2) microfnance and economic empowerment, (3) sustainability of MFIs, (4) creditworthiness, microfnance technology infrastructure and fnancing patterns, (5) Islamic fnancial inclusion, (6) credit assessment models for microcredit, (7) microfnance and innovative business models, and (8) gender and equity crowdfunding. Research gaps in each of the thematic clusters are identifed. Topics related to COVID-19, Islamic social fnance, microfnance institutions, credit scoring models, crowdfunding, and entrepreneurial fnance are likely to feature in the domain of microfnance and sustainability of MFIs in future.Item Managerial skills for micro, small and medium-sized enterprises (MSMEs)(Sciendo in Poland, 2022) Ng’ora, Sebastian; Mwakalobo, Adam Beni Swebe; Lwesya, FrancisEffective managerial skills can play a key role in the internal governance of micro and small businesses in Africa, enabling them to survive, compete and thrive in a dynamic business environment. However, due to the low absorption capacity, many micro and small entrepreneurs and managers lack the necessary managerial skills. We collected data from MSMEs owners and managers in Tanzania to examine the managerial skills required and their effect on business performance based on thematic content analysis and regression analysis. The results show that the managerial skills of MSMEs owners and managers have a significantly positive effect on MSMEs performance, in particular, financial management, marketing, human relations, and entrepreneurial skills were crucial skills in running small businesses successfully. However, financial management, marketing and entrepreneurial skills were the main skills gaps for many MSMEs owners and managers, suggesting that education, mentoring, and training in these areas for MSMEs owners and managers need to be strengthened. This study argues that since young people form the majority of the stakeholders running small businesses, targeted policies and strategies to promote entrepreneurship among young people through entrepreneurial learning and experiences can help instil an entrepreneurial mindset, one of the crucial skills in small business management.Item The role of ICT in facilitating farmers’ accessibility to extension services and marketing of agricultural produce: the case of maize in Mbozi district, Tanzania(Premier Publisher, 2017) Lwesya, Francis; Kibambila, VicentThe rapid pace of ICT development and its consequent use across economic, social and political spectrums has raised concerns among policy makers and practitioners over its potential to spur productivity in the agriculture sector as well. This paper examines the role that ICT can play in facilitating smallholder farmers’ accessibility to extension services and marketing of agricultural produce in Mbozi District. The study used structured questionnaires to collect information. A sample of 250 farmers was selected randomly and interviewed.The findings reveal that farmers are using ICT facilities to get access to extension services and in marketing maize in Mbozi District. The most preferred and major ICT tools used to inquire and receive extension services and market information are the mobile phones (53.88%), radio (23.67%), television (14.69%) and the internet (7.75%). However, effective use of ICT in the study area is constrained by poor infrastructure in rural areas, and lack of technical know-how exhibited in the lack of basic ICT skills. Other constraints are the erratic power supply, poor signals, lack of network, and lack of internet connectivity and a high cost of some ICT tools. This suggests that if requisite ICT infrastructures are put in place in Mbozi District, ICT can bring about significant benefits to smallholder farmers leading to increased agricultural productivity and hence poverty reduction. Thus, the study recommends promoting investment in renewable energy sources in order to address the problem of power in rural areas. Creating an enabling environment for ICT services accessibility, including the construction of transport and communication network infrastructures. The establishment of market information centers and telecenters in Mbozi District particularly in rural areas and advocating for the use of collective marketing through strengthened farmers groups to ease their access to ICT facilities.Item The role of ICT in facilitating farmers’ accessibility to extension services and marketing of agricultural produce: The case of Maize in Mbozi District, Tanzania(Premier Publishers., 2017) Lwesya, Francis; Kibambila, VicentThe rapid pace of ICT development and its consequent use across economic, social and political spectrums has raised concerns among policy makers and practitioners over its potential to spur productivity in the agriculture sector as well. This paper examines the role that ICT can play in facilitating smallholder farmers’ accessibility to extension services and marketing of agricultural produce in Mbozi District. The study used structured questionnaires to collect information. A sample of 250 farmers was selected randomly and interviewed.The findings reveal that farmers are using ICT facilities to get access to extension services and in marketing maize in Mbozi District. The most preferred and major ICT tools used to inquire and receive extension services and market information are the mobile phones (53.88%), radio (23.67%), television (14.69%) and the internet (7.75%). However, effective use of ICT in the study area is constrained by poor infrastructure in rural areas, and lack of technical know-how exhibited in the lack of basic ICT skills. Other constraints are the erratic power supply, poor signals, lack of network, and lack of internet connectivity and a high cost of some ICT tools. This suggests that if requisite ICT infrastructures are put in place in Mbozi District, ICT can bring about significant benefits to smallholder farmers leading to increased agricultural productivity and hence poverty reduction. Thus, the study recommends promoting investment in renewable energy sources in order to address the problem of power in rural areas. Creating an enabling environment for ICT services accessibility, including the construction of transport and communication network infrastructures. The establishment of market information centers and telecenters in Mbozi District particularly in rural areas and advocating for the use of collective marketing through strengthened farmers groups to ease their access to ICT facilities.Item SMEs’ competitiveness and international trade in the era of Global Value Chains (GVCs) in Tanzania: an assessment and future challenges(Asociación Española de Contabilidad y Administración de Empresas (AECA), 2021) Lwesya, FrancisInternational trade continues to play a crucial role in economic transformation in African countries. The rise of Global Value Chains (GVCs) presents opportunities through which international trade can be effectively conducted. GVCs facilitate organization of trade, international production and investment by locating different stages of production process across varied countries. This presents opportunities to integrate Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs) into global trading systems but also may generate challenges particularly to resource constrained SMEs. Reviewing the challenges for the participation in international trade and possible integration into GVCs by Tanzania’s SMEs, the results show that the major challenges for SMEs internationalization are international marketing related constraints and global competition (69%), supply side constraints (56%), unfriendly investment climate (50%) and financial constraints (37.5%). As such, the role of trade policies remains critical in mitigating some of these challenges through formulating friendly legal and regulatory frameworks, enhancing SMEs productivity by building their managerial and technical capacities, minimizing trade costs, and increasing trade openness. However, given the current global, regional and domestic developments in Tanzania, trade policies need review so as to respond to the changing global trade landscape but also promote policy harmony, coherence and complementarities among varying implementing institutions, deficiency of which is debilitating policy implementation at presentItem Towards organic agriculture: assessing the dynamics of production and exporting of organic cocoa in Tanzania(Editura Universitară & ADI Publication, 2018) Lwesya, FrancisGlobal trade in agrifoods has changed dramatically in the past two decades due to changes in technology, increased competition and shifts in consumer demands, tastes and preferences in terms of food quality, food safety and other food attributes. As a result the demand for organic agricultural products has been growing in international markets. This paper reviews organic cocoa production and exporting in Tanzania using both empirical and descriptive approaches. The findings show a modest growth in production and export of organic cocoa in Tanzania for a period of 2005 to 2013. However, the growth recorded is below Tanzania’s organic cocoa existing production potentials, and this can be attributed to lack of organic agriculture policy, shortage of expertise in organic farming and high certification costs charged by buying companies at present. Nonetheless, there exists a growing demand for organic cocoa in global markets and Tanzania produces high quality organic cocoa, implying the need to exploit this existing opportunity by expanding organic cocoa production and exports. Thus, the study recommends a revisit of the agriculture policy and other complementary policies to provide appropriate regulatory and policy framework for organic agriculture in a bid to unlock the potentials and address the challenges that face small-holder farmers.Item Trade liberalization in SADC and the economic benefits of belonging to an RTA: the case of Tanzania(University of Bacau, 2018) Dyegula, Nzeyimana; Lwesya, FrancisThis paper examines the dynamics of trade liberalisation in the Southern Development Community (SADC), region and the economic benefits that Tanzania derives from SADC membership. The paper uses qualitative analysis and trade indices. The findings show that SADC is far behind its agreed schedule of transforming the region into a customs union and SADC intra-regional trade is very low, only South Africa and Mozambique seem to carry the potential to increase intraregional trade and benefit from SADC in the short run. On the other hand, Tanzania's economic benefits from SADC membership have remained trivial, though her exports and market share have been steadily increasing since the mid 1990s. However, Tanzania does not suffer adversely from the dual membership of EAC and SADC regions, despite its membership in the two overlapping RTAs making its trade regime complex because tariff reductions under EAC customs union are not compatible with SADC's hence resulting in problems in implementing the SADC Trade Protocol. However, the country may not need to withdraw its membership from either EAC or SADC due to signs of good prospect in the long run under the proposed harmonisation of the EAC and SADC trade regime through the Tripartiite Free Trade Area arrangement (COMESA-EAC-SADC).