Browsing by Author "Tumbo, Siza D."

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    Impacts of climate variability and change on rainfed sorghum and maize: implications for food security policy in Tanzania
    (Canadian Center of Science and Education, 2015) Msongaleli, Barnabas M.; Rwehumbiza, Filbert; Tumbo, Siza D.; Kihupi, Nganga
    Concern about food security has increased because of a changing climate, which poses a great threat to food crop productivity. Climate change projections from the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) and crop models were used to investigate the impacts of climate change on rain-fed cereal production. Calibrated and evaluated crop models simulated maize and sorghum yields over time periods and scenarios across central zone Tanzania with and without adaptation. Simulation outputs without adaptation showed predominant decrease and increase in maize and sorghum yields, respectively. The results showed that maize yields were predicted to decline between 1% and 25% across periods, representative concentration pathways (RCPs) and global circulation models (GCMs). However, sorghum yields were on average predicted to increase between 5% and 21%. Overall when adaptation is incorporated toward mid-century, yields are projected to increase for both crops. The yield projections variation between cereal crops highlights the importance of location and crop specific climate change impact assessments. Despite the uncertainties in predicting the impacts of climate change on rainfed crops, especially on cereals (maize and sorghum) which are important staple food crops in semi-arid Tanzania, the findings of this study enable policy makers to develop plans aimed at sustainable food security. In conclusion, the results demonstrate the presumption that sorghum productivity stands a better chance than maize under prospects of negative impacts from climate change in central zone Tanzania.
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    Sorghum yield response to changing climatic conditions in semi-arid central Tanzania: evaluating crop simulation model applicability
    (Scientific Research Publishing, 2014) Msongaleli, Barnabas; Rwehumbiza, Filbert; Tumbo, Siza D.; Kihupi, Nganga
    Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) and Agricultural Production Systems SIMulator (APSIM) were calibrated and evaluated to simulate sorghum (Sorghum Bicolor L. Moench) var. Tegemeo under current and future climate in central Tanzania. Simulations for both current and future periods were run assuming present technology, current varieties and current agronomy packages to investigate rain-fed sorghum yield response. Simulations by both crop models using downscaled weather data from eight General Circulation Models (GCMs) under the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) and Representative Concentration Path- way (RCP 4.5) by mid-century show a mixture of increase and decrease in median sorghum yields. Four GCMs project yields to increase by 5% - 23.0% and one GCM show a decrease by 2% - 9%. Model simulations under the remaining three GCMs give contrasting results of increase and de-crease. Adjustment of crop duration to mimic the choice of growing local cultivars versus improved cultivars seems a feasible option under future climate scenarios. Our simulation results show that current open-pollinated sorghum cultivars would be resilient to projected changes in climate by 2050s but things seem better with long duration cultivars. We conclude that crop simulation models show their applicability as tools for assessing possible impacts of climate change on sorghum due to agreement in the direction of crop yield predictions in five out of eight selected GCMs under projected climate scenarios. The findings provide useful guidance and motivation to government authorities and development agencies dealing with food security issues to prioritize adaptations policies geared to ensuring increased and sustained sorghum productivity in Tanzania and elsewhere.