Mathematical modelling on COVID-19 transmission impacts with preventive measures: a case study of Tanzania
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Date
2020
Journal Title
Journal ISSN
Volume Title
Publisher
Taylor & Francis
Abstract
The out break of COVID-19 was first experienced in Wuhan City, China, during December 2019 before it rapidly spread over globally. This paper has proposed a mathematical model for studying its trans-mission dynamics in the presence of face mask wearing and hospitalization services of human population in Tanzania. Disease-free and endemic equilibria were determined and subsequently their local and global stabilities were carried out. The trace-determinant approach was used in the local stability of disease-free equilibrium point while Lyapunov function technique was used to determine the global stability of both disease-free and endemic equilibrium points. Basic reproduction number,R0, was determined in which its numerical results revealed that, in the presence of face masks wearing and medication services or hospitalization as preventive measure for itstransmission,R0=0.698 while in their absenceR0=3.8. This supports its analytical solution that the disease-free equilibrium pointE0is asymptotically stable wheneverR0<1, while endemic equilibrium point E∗ is globally asymptotically stable forR0>1. Therefore, this paper proves the necessity of face masks wearing and hospitalization services to COVID-19 patients to contain the disease spread to the population.
Description
Full text articles. Also available at https://doi.org/10.1080/17513758.2020.1823494
Keywords
COVID-19, Mask, Face mask, Basic reproduction number, Diseases, Tanzania, Corona Virus Disease 2019, Endemic equilibria
Citation
Mumbu, A. R. J., & Hugo, A. K. (2020). Mathematical modelling on COVID-19 transmission impacts with preventive measures: A case study of Tanzania. Journal of Biological Dynamics, 14(1), 748-766.