Browsing by Author "Hugo, Alfred K."

Now showing 1 - 6 of 6
  • Thumbnail Image
    Item
    Mathematical modelling on COVID-19 transmission impacts with preventive measures: a case study of Tanzania
    (Taylor & Francis, 2020) Mumbu, Abdul-rahman J.; Hugo, Alfred K.
    The out break of COVID-19 was first experienced in Wuhan City, China, during December 2019 before it rapidly spread over globally. This paper has proposed a mathematical model for studying its trans-mission dynamics in the presence of face mask wearing and hospitalization services of human population in Tanzania. Disease-free and endemic equilibria were determined and subsequently their local and global stabilities were carried out. The trace-determinant approach was used in the local stability of disease-free equilibrium point while Lyapunov function technique was used to determine the global stability of both disease-free and endemic equilibrium points. Basic reproduction number,R0, was determined in which its numerical results revealed that, in the presence of face masks wearing and medication services or hospitalization as preventive measure for itstransmission,R0=0.698 while in their absenceR0=3.8. This supports its analytical solution that the disease-free equilibrium pointE0is asymptotically stable wheneverR0<1, while endemic equilibrium point E∗ is globally asymptotically stable forR0>1. Therefore, this paper proves the necessity of face masks wearing and hospitalization services to COVID-19 patients to contain the disease spread to the population.
  • Thumbnail Image
    Item
    Modelling african trypanosomiasis in human with optimal control and cost-effectiveness analysis
    (The Korean Society for Computational and Applied Mathematics, 2021) Gervas, Hamenyimana Emanuel; Hugo, Alfred K.
    Human African Trypanosomiasis (HAT) also known as sleeping sickness, is a neglected tropical vector borne disease caused by trypanosome protozoa transmitted by bites of infected tsetse fly. The basic reproduction number, R0 derived using the next generation matrix method which shows that the disease persists in the population if the value of R0 > 1. The numerical simulations of optimal control model carried out to determine the control strategy that can combat HAT under the minimum cost. The results indicate that, the use of both education campaign, treatment and insecticides are more efficient and effective to eliminate HAT in African community but too costly. Furthermore, the cost-effectiveness of the control measures (education campaign, treatment and insecticides) were determined using incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) approach and the results show that, the use of education and treatment of infected people as the best cost effective strategy compared to other strategies.
  • Thumbnail Image
    Item
    Modelling infectiology of bursal disease in chicks with control measures
    (Science Publishing Corporation, 2021) Hugo, Alfred K.; Kitengeso, Raymond E.; Lusekelo, Eva
    This paper focuses on mathematical control of infectious bursal disease in chicks. The model boundedness and the control measures to reduce the spreads of the disease have well analytically examined. The theory of Pontryagin’s maximum principle used in analysing necessary conditions to combat the disease. Numerically, forward backward sweep method and fourth-order Runge-Kutta scheme using the forward solution of the state equations was applied. The outcome indicates that the combination of vaccination of chicks and environmental sanitation as the most cost-effectiveness strategy to combat the spread of IBD with limited resources. Therefore, IBD can be controlled if the poultry farmers will effectively apply vaccination of chicks and environmental sanitation.
  • Thumbnail Image
    Item
    Modelling the effect of Fusarium oxysporum in transmission dynamics of fusarium wilt disease of cashew plants in context of south-eastern Tanzania
    (SCIK Publishing Corporation, 2022) Chilinga, Fatu; Hugo, Alfred K.; Wanyama, Alfred M.
    Cashew nuts are the most important cash crop in Tanzania's south-eastern region, where cashew nut farming is the primary source of income for the majority of people. Aside from their importance, cashew plants are vulnerable to Fusarium wilt, a devastating disease. In particular study a system of equations for the model is formulated and analyzed qualitatively using the stability theorem of ordinary differential equation. The stability analysis indicates that the system is stable under the specified conditions. Furthermore, the analysis shows that an increase in transmission is determined by the rate of contact between susceptible plants and infected plants via root contact, whereas numerical results show that decomposed infected plants contribute to the growth of Fusarium oxysporum, increasing the disease outbreak.
  • Thumbnail Image
    Item
    Modelling the Impact of Decomposed Disease-Induced Dead Cashew Plants on Fusarium Wilt Dynamics in South-Eastern Tanzania
    (The Institute for Research and Community Services (LPPM) ITB, 2023) Chilinga, Fatu; Hugo, Alfred K.
    Cashew Fusarium wilt disease transmitted by Fusarium oxysporum is dangerous and destroys many cashew plants in Tanzania. The effect of this disease leads households and the government to experience a decrease in overall cashew production and income due to this disease’s capacity to harm cashew plants. This study aimed to ascertain the role of Fusarium wilt-decayed disease-induced dead plants in spreading the disease among cashew plants. A mathematical model was created based on the dynamics of the disease and a stability analysis was conducted using theories of ordinary differential equations. Data from two regions in Tanzania, Lindi, and Mtwara, were used in model fitting and parameter estimation. Additionally, the parameters were estimated using maximum likelihood estimation (MLE). The outcome suggests that the disease’s prevalence and spread increase during an outbreak as decomposed diseased-induced dead plants contribute to the saturation of chlamydospores in the soil.
  • Thumbnail Image
    Item
    Modelling the impact of decomposed disease-induced dead cashew plants on fusarium wilt dynamics in South-Eastern Tanzania
    (The Institute for Research and Community Services (LPPM) ITB, 2023) Chilinga, Fatu; Hugo, Alfred K.
    Cashew Fusarium wilt disease transmitted by Fusarium oxysporum is dangerous and destroys many cashew plants in Tanzania. The effect of this disease leads households and the government to experience a decrease in overall cashew production and income due to this disease's capacity to harm cashew plants. This study aimed to ascertain the role of Fusarium wilt-decayed disease-induced dead plants in spreading the disease among cashew plants. A mathematical model was created based on the dynamics of the disease and a stability analysis was conducted using theories of ordinary differential equations. Data from two regions in Tanzania, Lindi, and Mtwara, were used in model fitting and parameter estimation. Additionally, the parameters were estimated using maximum likelihood estimation (MLE). The outcome suggests that the disease's prevalence and spread increase during an outbreak as decomposed diseased-induced dead plants contribute to the saturation of chlamydospores in the soil.