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Item Modelling the transmission dyanamics of Leptospirosis with control measures(The University of Dodoma, 2022) Kasebo, Ndabazi AbdallahLeptospirosis is a bacterial disease which is caused mainly by rodents and other animals. The disease is more neglected in many parts of the world. Major hosts of leptospirosis are rodents and other small animals like bats. In this dissertation, SIR model studied humans and animals leptospirosis transmission dynamics with control measures. The model shows direct transmission of the disease in human and animals. Also the model with control strategies is formulated, controls involved are treatment of infected humans, treatment and quarantine of infected animals both by using antibiotics such as doxycycline or penicillin and intravenous antibiotics may be administered for persons and animals with severe symptoms and rat control by trapping and killing them which also involves poisoning them. Disease free and endemic equilibrium are calculated and their local and global stabilities are determined. Trace-determinant method is used to find out local stability of disease free equilibrium point while Lyapunov function technique is used to determine global stability of both, disease free and endemic points. Basic reproduction number , R0 = 0:0178 and effective reproduction number, Re = 0:000319 are calculated by next generation method. The Lyapunov method was used to determine the global stability of the model computations. The model was computed numerically by Runge-Kutta method and computation by using Maple software. Simulation of the model results is done by using MATLAB. The sensitivity of R0 shows that the rate of pathogens sheds by infected animals into the environment is high, that means animals play a big role on shedding bacteria than rats. Also it shows animal to animal transmission of leptospirosis is very high comparing to other forms of transmission. Solutions show that, the disease free equilibrium point E0 is locally asymptotically stable whenever R0 < 1 and unstable when R0 > 1, while endemic equilibrium point E_ is globally asymptotically stable when R0 > 1. The numerical simulations presented to illustrate the dynamics transmission of the disease, the simulation shows that the environment is the main way for both human and animals to contract leptospirosis. The suggested controls are treatment of infected humans, treatment and quarantine of infected animals and rat control by trapping and killing as well as poisoning them. The results shows that treatment and quarantine of infected animals is more effective strategy than treatment of infected humans.Item Evaluation of toxic metals and radionuclide levels in root vegetables grown in the vicinity of Bahi uranium deposit(The University of Dodoma, 2022) Ndai, Kelvin DidasThe presence of large uranium deposit in Kisalalo area in Bahi district has raised concerns on the contamination of food groups grown in the vicinity. This study has assessed the levels of concentration of toxic metals including arsenic (As), Cadmium (Cd), Chromium (Cr), Mercury (Hg) and Lead (Pb) and radionuclides including Thorium (232Th), Radium (226Ra) and Potassium (40K) in cassava (Manihot Esculenta) and sweet potatoes (Ipomoea Batatas) from Bahi district.Characterisation of toxic metals and radionuclides was done using Energy Dispersive X-Ray Fluorescence and Gamma Ray Spectrometries respectively. Cassava and sweet potatoes from Bahi ward were found to accumulate higher concentration of toxic metals than in other areas. The highest mean concentration of Cd, Cr, Hg and Pb were found to be 7.91 𝑚𝑔/𝑘𝑔, 34.68 𝑚𝑔/𝑘𝑔, 2.19 𝑚𝑔/𝑘𝑔, and 2.78 𝑚𝑔/ 𝑘𝑔respectively and were approximately 80, 34, 22, and 28 times higher than their respective maximum tolerable limits.Cr levels in cassava and sweet potatoes were highest than other toxic metals due to presence of Cr in the soil and its higher soil to plant transfer factor while As levels were the least almost around tolerable limit.Furthermore, the highest mean activity concentration of 232Th was found to be 9.98 𝐵𝑞/𝑘𝑔in sweet potatoes from Bahi ward while that of 226Ra was 6.63 𝐵𝑞/𝑘𝑔 in sweet potatoes from Bahi ward and that of 40K was 528.43 𝐵𝑞/𝑘𝑔 in cassava from Bahi ward. The highest total annual effective dose due to consumption of cassava and sweet potatoes was found to be 0.0133 mSv/year from Bahi ward but this was within the recommended limit of 1 mSv/year set by FAO/WHO.The results show that cassava and sweet potatoes grown in Bahi ward which is closest to the Kisalalo Uranium deposit site had the highest accumulation of toxic metals.It is thus suggested that the root vegetables are not suitable to be grown in this place as they contribute to exposing consumers to toxicity of heavy metals. On the other hand, despite the presence of the above mentioned radionuclides, the annual effective dose due to consumption of radionuclides is very low and this suggests that the root vegetables do not contribute much in exposing consumers to radiation toxicity.Item Generalized exact anisotropic neutral star model with embedding approach(The University of Dodoma, 2022) Pastory, MakaloUsing embedding approach, this study presents exact solutions to the Einstein field equations for anisotropic neutral stars in more generalized form. The study involves a generalization of the choice of metric potential made by Mathias, Maharaj, Sunzu and Mkenyeleye in which the choice of metric potential is in more specific form. Under embedding approach, one of the metric potentials is chosen on physical grounds while the Karmarkar condition is used to generate the second metric potential. Modelled masses and radii in acceptable ranges for neutral stars are found. Moreover, masses and radii consistent with stars like LMCX-4, Her X-1, cen X-3, 4U 1538-52, vela X-1, and SAX J1808.4-3658 are also generated.Item Generalized exact anisotropic neutral star model with embedding approach(2022) Pastory, MakaloUsing embedding approach, this study presents exact solutions to the Einstein field equations for anisotropic neutral stars in more generalized form. The study involves a generalization of the choice of metric potential made by Mathias, Maharaj, Sunzu and Mkenyeleye in which the choice of metric potential is in more specific form. Under embedding approach, one of the metric potentials is chosen on physical grounds while the Karmarkar condition is used to generate the second metric potential. Modelled masses and radii in acceptable ranges for neutral stars are found. Moreover, masses and radii consistent with stars like LMCX-4, Her X-1, cen X-3, 4U 1538-52, vela X-1, and SAX J1808.4-3658 are also generated.Item Predictive Accuracy of Fixed and Random Survival Models: A case of TB-LAM Clinical Trial(The University of Dodoma, 2023) Leonard, OscarThe current study compared the prediction accuracy and covariate selection performance of the fitted fixed and random models in covariates without validating the proportional hazard assumption. Given the complexities of the covariate structures and the higher-dimensional interactions between the explanatory covariates, predicting clinical trial results and treatment responses remains challenging As a result, effective survival prediction models that can manage and understand complex structures and variable interactions are definitely required. The Cox proportional hazard (Cox PH) model is the most widely used to predict survival time, despite its limitations due to complicated interactions and non-linearity in covariates. Random survival model, particularly random survival forest (RSF), has gained popularity in recent years due to its capacity to understand complicated interactions among explanatory covariates and nonlinearity effects among predictors. Accordingly, the tuberculosis and human immunodeficiency virus (TB-HIV) co-infection dataset was obtained from Kibong'oto Infectious Diseases Hospital in Tanzania using a retrospective cohort design. The concordance index(C-index), Brier score (BS), and Integrated Brier score (IBS) were used to calculate prediction accuracy. Furthermore, binary logistic regression were used to examine variables related to the outcome status, which signified survival or death, and was compared to predictors related to time-to-event using the Cox regression model. Consequently, the RSF model outperformed the Cox PH model in both prediction accuracy and covariate selection performance in C-index, BS, and IBS outcomes. Similarly, the covariates chosen by the binary logistic regression model based on the outcome status differed slightly from the variables picked by the Cox PH based on the time to event. The RSF model outperformed Cox PH in prediction accuracy in the TB-HIV co-infection dataset without verifying the PH assumption of the covariates, suggesting that the RSF model should be used to analyze survival datasets regardless of whether the variables' proportional hazard assumption is satisfied.Item Comparing evaluation methods of students’ performance in secondary schools in Mbulu district using statistical quality control grade and fixed grading(The University of Dodoma, 2022) Alphonce, FilbertTanzania like other countries in the world is faced by challenges in secondary education system. There is enough evidence that, assessment of students’ performance is one of the challenges that face assessors in secondary schools. Despite the mitigations agreed to solve the challenges on evaluation of students’ performance in the country. Studies about evaluation of students’ performance that have been conducted in Tanzania have mainly focused on fixed grading method. To fill this gap, this quantitative study investigated students’ performance by comparing their performance using statistical quality control charts grade and fixed grading method. The study is guided by three specific objectives which were: to assess students’ performance of a subject by using individual control chart over fixed grading method, between subjects by using mean and S control chart over fixed grading method and within a school by using group control charts over fixed grading method. The study was conducted in ordinary secondary schools in Mbulu District. It employed secondary data which were collected from240 students’ sampled documents obtained from academic students’ progressive report from six ordinary secondary schools in Mbulu District. The students’ performance was analyzed as per specific objectives by using Minitab Statistical Software with the help of statistical quality control charts grade and fixed grading method. After the analysis of the collected data, the quality control charts grade revealed that more students were performing well as compared with the analysis done by fixed grading method. The findings implied that statistical quality control charts grade was a tool that caused a large number of students to pass their examinations as opposed to the fixed grading method in evaluation of students’ performance. This is because the statistical quality control charts grade lower the cut-off points of the students’ performance. These findings have an implication in evaluating students’ performance since secondary school teachers may use statistical quality control charts grade to increase individual students’ performance in each subject.Item Queueing systems in the cafeterias at the University of Dodoma in Dodoma(The University of Dodoma, 2020) Mnyanga, Evodia AndreasThis study studies the performance of queueing systems in the cafeterias at the University of Dodoma, Dodoma Tanzania. Data were recorded in a period of seven days from Monday to Sunday for all queues that is breakfast, lunch queue1 and 2 and dinner queue 1 and 2 at Rice phase to find the distribution pattern of the arrival and the service time through fitting them in poison and exponential distribution respectively, to determine the average waiting time in a queue by using the M/M/1 mathematical model, and to analyze the waiting time in a system by using statistical quality control chart. The results of the findings showed that the arrival time and service time for all queues in all sessions follows poison and exponential distribution respectively. Also the findings showed that the expected waiting time is high during breakfast as it has been indicated by the weekly service rate which is 0.479cust/min. Meanwhile during lunch and dinner the expected waiting time is low compared to breakfast. That is for lunch the service rate is 0.786cust/min and 0.792cust/min for queue 1and queue 2. While for dinner session the service rate is 0.740cust/min and 0.733cust/min for queue 1and queue 2. Similarly the findings showed the performance of the system is not good as indicated by the theoretical control chart that the waiting time for all queues are out of controlItem Forecasting of climate variables in Mbeya region(The University of Dodoma, 2020) Chisunga, MosesTanzania, like other countries in the world, is affected by climate change. There is enough evidence to substantiate this that comes from the increase of temperatures across the country over the past thirty years. Despite the mitigations approved to attack the problem of climate change in the country, forecasting of climate variables is a prerequisite. Studies about climate change that have been conducted in Tanzania have mainly focused on assessing the weakness and adaption to the effects of climate change in Tanzania while using either temperature or rainfall variables. Further, the studies have depended on the information at the national level rather than the regional level. To fill this gap, this study forecast the climate variables in Mbeya Region. Specifically, the study analyzed the pattern of climate in Mbeya region with the help of the fit climate model using time series techniques and the fitted model. The climate variables included in the study are temperature, rainfall, evaporation, humidity, and wind speed. The study used secondary data from 1981-2019 collected from Tanzania Meteorological Authority (TMA), Mbeya center. The analysis of the data revealed that the patterns of climate variables are seasonal for monthly data while observing the yearly data trend. Either, there was no data to show irregularities and cyclic components. Basing on the theory of Box and Jenkins, SARIMA were fitted and used to forecast rainfall and temperature respectively. The study recommends Box and Jenkins to be used to get the ARIMA model, either seasonally or non-seasonally.Item Modelling and forecasting retail prices of maize for three agricultural markets in Tanzania(The University of Dodoma, 2019) Mhohelo, Doris RobertThis study examined the modelling for maize prices using Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models so as to determine the most efficient and adequate model for analyzing the maize monthly prices at the Gairo market in Morogoro Region, Manyoni market in Singida Region and Kibaigwa market in Dodoma Region. The results indicate that ARIMA (1, 1, 4) model is the most adequate and efficient model for Gairo market, ARIMA (2, 1, 3) model is the most adequate and efficient mode1 for Manyoni market and ARIMA (2, 2, 3) model is the most adequate and efficient model for Kibaigwa market. This was determined by comparing the various model selection criteria and the diagnostic tests for various models among them Akaike Information Criteria (AIC) and Bayesian Information Criteria (BIC) and Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). Time-series analysis was done using STATGRAPHICS, EXCEL, R software and SAS JPM. The forecast results suggest that there are expectations of increasing maize prices in Manyoni market from July-2018 to March-2019, the maize prices in Kibaigwa market are also expected to increase with time from January 2018 to February 2019 and the maize prices at Gairo market are expected to keep on increasing with time from July 2018 to May 2019. A better understanding of maize prices situation and future prices will enable producers and consumers to make the right choices concerning buying and selling arrangements. Hence, the government should take appropriate actions to make sure that both producers and consumers are earning the profit.Item Queuing system at National Micro Finance Bank, a case study of Uluguru branch, Morogoro urban(The University of Dodoma, 2019) Gadi, Salama AhmadStatistics is one among the old and wide discipline spread across the global. As many studies and topics have been researched, published and presented in various setup and purpose. Some topics or areas of statistics are extensively covered in those researches in some areas. The study on queuing has not been done extensively in Tanzania. The queuing is a common practice to all public service centres where the demands surpass the supply. This study investigates the performance of queuing system at National Micro Finance Bank (NMB) Uluguru branch in Morogoro Tanzania. A daily observations data were recorded in a period of five days from Monday to Friday to find the distribution pattern of the arrival and the service time through fitting them in poison and exponential distribution respectively, to determine the average waiting time in a queue by using the M/M/C mathematical model, and to monitor waiting time in a system by using control chart. The results of the findings showed that the arrival time and service time follows poison and exponential distribution respectively. Also the results shows that the average waiting time is low as it has been indicated by average weekly service rate of the customers which is 0.62cust/min. Likewise, the findings showed the performance of the system is better as indicated by the theoretical control chart that the waiting time for all days except Wednesday are in control.Item Statistical analysis of maize supply in Kibaigwa maize market(The University of Dodoma, 2019) Gabreely, Sebastian DamianoThe operation of maize markets has been associated with a number of challenges. These challenges have affected maize supply in the markets. Because the adaptation of interrelationships among construct is limited in most of studies especially in Tanzania. This study intended to analyze the maize supply in Kibaigwa maize market using Time Series Techniques and Structural Equation Modelling (SEM). The study employed retrospective longitudinal research design. Secondary data that were used in the study were collected from Kibaigwa maize market office. The study reveals that there is statistical significance difference (p = 0.037) between the quantity of maize brought to the market and those purchased. This indicates that the market is performing well as farmers are able to sell their maize because of the availability of buyers. It has been found that, quantity of maize arrivals in the market is less than quantity flow out because the market is not recording maize brought to the market by small farmers. Important information such as the number of farmers bringing maize in the market and number of buyers is missing. This study recommends proper data keeping at the market. Moreover, the quantity of maize entered in the market by small scale farmers should also be recorded.Item Modelling of malaria inpatients length of stay at St. Francis refferal hospital Morogoro region Tanzania(The University of Dodoma, 2019) Ndimbwelu, KilemaMalaria remains a major cause of morbidity and mortality, leading to more than 600 million cases and two million deaths each year worldwide. Over 90% of these cases occur in sub-Saharan Africa where Falciparum Malaria is pervasive and the major killer of children below five (5) years old. This study was conducted through modelling the length of stay using some variables from hospital register for inpatients with Malaria. The results showed that the hospital length of stay per day at St. Francis referral hospital was influenced by predictors that are, lab-turnaround time (TAT), actual treatment, season when the patient was admitted, patient diagnostic status, severity, distance and age, which were statistically significant at α = 0.01 (1%) and 0.05 (5%) with their p-values 0.001(1%), 0.008(5%), 0.013(5%), 0.005(1%), 0.000(1%), 0.000(1%), 0.000(1%) respectively. However, the variable patient outcome on admission was insignificant with p-value 0.107. Also, the findings from Logistic Regression indicate that the predictors distance, duration of stay in hospital (LOS), age, Referral status, sex, patient diagnostic status and season when the patient was admitted; were statistically significant at 1% and 5% with their p-value 0.004 (5%), 0.035 (5%), 0.005 (5%), 0.007 (5%), 0.043 (5%) and 0.039 (5%) odds ratios (1.124,1.023,0.867,0.036,1.455,1.065 and 0.170) respectively were independent risk factors for severe malaria among inpatient at St. Francis referral hospital. Clinical laboratory turnaround time performance was insufficient, since five months out of six months the process was incapable, but the process was capable only for one month with the pc and kCp of 1.58 and 1.29 respectively.Item Time series analysis of oil price shocks and inflation in Tanzania- an ARDL and VAR approach(The University of Dodoma, 2019) Ndule, Mohamed AllyOil is essential raw materials in running daily economic activities in Tanzania. The importation of oil in the country is heavily increasing due to the increasing number of cars, motorcycles, industries, and other machines which need oil for their operations. But the imported oil has been going along with the imported inflation in the country. It is assumed that the strong and stable inflation influence economic growths of a country since it inspires savers, investments, and enhance consumers to afford to purchase goods and service and therefore influence the economic growth of the country. However, due to the role of oil in Tanzania, a researcher is highly interested to examine the Times series data of oil price shocks and inflation in Tanzania by including macro-economic variables such as crude oil price, inflation rate, exchange rate, and GDP. The study employed ARDL approach of co-integration to establish relationship between oil price shocks and inflation, Vector Autoregressive (VAR) approach through IRF and FEVD to examine the impact of oil price shocks on inflation, and also it employed coefficient of elasticity to determine the degree of responsiveness of inflation rate to shocks using annual data from 19702017. The result from ARDL showed that there exists a significant long-run positive relationship between inflation and oil price. The result also showed a significant long-run negative relationship between inflation and GDP. Also, the result from a VAR approach revealed that oil price and exchange rate have a positive impact on inflation, while GDP has a negative impact on inflation. Based on the results of this study it is recommended that the government should find another source of energy to reduce the heavy importation of oil so as to reduce the inflationary pressure in Tanzania.Item Survival analysis of patients undergoing hemo-dialysis during 2015 – 2018 at Muhimbili hospital, Dar es salaam, Tanzania(The University of Dodoma, 2019) Nzugilwa, Petro M.The survival patterns and their influencing covariates (factors) for hemo-dialysis patients at Muhimbili National Hospital (MNH) in Dar es Salaam Tanzania are explained in this dissertation. Number of hemo-dialysis that a patient had, alcohol intake history and blood transfusion status of patients were significant variables for failure. The study explored that, the survival times for hemo-dialysis patients at Muhimbili National Hospital follow lognormal distribution and therefore, parametric model fitted based on this distribution. The mean and median survival time of hemo-dialysis patients observed to be 468 and 260 days respectively as suggested by parametric model (log-normal). Semi-parametric method of analysis (Cox-proportional hazard model) was used to determine the covariates for failure for hemo-dialysis patients and compare hazard for different class variables. Under this model, number of dialysis and alcohol intake history were significant variables for failure of patients. Non-parametric methods such as Kaplan-Meier estimator used to obtain the mean and median survival and compare the survival for group variables. The mean and median survival from KM-estimator observed to be 221 and 206 days respectively. Log-Rank test used to assess the significance variation in survival for class variables. A Significant variation observed for cigarette smoking and HIV/AIDs status of patients. Complications and co-morbidities are also discussed. Low blood pressure, body weakness and urine syndrome are common complications. Some co-morbidities influenced some complications. For example, 37% of patients with negative blood group had more than 2 complications.Item Time series arima modelling of loan borrowing and repayment at Kifanya saccos limited in Njombe, Tanzania(The University of Dodoma, 2018) Wagofya, Guntram M.Savings and credit cooperative societies (SACCOS) in developing countries like Tanzania are very importance in solving the financial problem to low income groups especially in rural areas. SACCOS have the sole role of mobilizing savings that creates the source of funds to benefit their members. But for a SACCOS to prosper in its role of financial intermediation, it has to give more loans and ensure that most of them are repaid in time. To plan for such achievements the SACCOS needs accurate forecasting techniques to predict the future value of its loan portfolio. This study was conducted at Kifanya SACCOS in Njombe Region, Tanzania. The study focuses on modelling and forecasting of the monthly loan borrowing and repayment on short-term basis by using the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models. The modelling process was preceded by analysing the components of the series of interest which revealed the presence of increasing trend and cyclic variations. Seasonal variation appeared to be very significant in loan borrowing only. The findings showed that the best time series model for monthly loan borrowing is ARIMA (0,1,1)(0,0,1)12 whilst that for loan repayment is ARIMA (1,1,2). Also, it was revealed that the developed models fit well the historical data and can be used in short-term forecasting of the future values of loan borrowing and its recovery. However, in some months the forecasts may not agree strongly with the observed values as the series under study are very volatile and this increases unpredictability in their future values. Therefore, it was recommended for future researchers to consider non-linear models such as the ARCH model together with its variants and SVM models in addition to the ARIMA model.Item Evaluation of secondary schools students performance in Igunga district by using statistical quality control methods(The University of Dodoma, 2018) Zacharia, CharlesIn Tanzania secondary education, evaluating of students’ performance is a problem. In this study, students’ academic performance from six secondary for four years were assessed by using Statistical Quality Control (SQC). Data collected for the study, were secondary data from academic documents which were students’ progressive report. Statistical quality control charts were used to analyze data collected. After evaluating out of 14 of Individual control charts, 12 charts were found to be out of statistical control. Out of the 19 of mean control charts all 19 charts were out of the statistical control. For the group control charts indicated that out of 6 charts all 6 out of them also, were out of the statistical control. Therefore, secondary school students’ performances were shown to be out of statistical control, which implied that, there were assignable courses of variations operating in the students’ performance, which should be detected and corrected. However, if students’ performance for the four years of study fell within the control limits, then we could conclude that the students had maintained the desired target performance value. The study recommends that, school administrators and instructors should identify and remove causes for the students’ performance, which were falling below the lower control limit which indicated a negative shift in performance and implements factors of the students’ performance whom fell above the upper control limit and indicated the positive shift in performance.Item Existence and uniqueness of the solution to nonlocal problem for a loaded parabolic equation and its numerical approximation(The University of Dodoma, 2018) Mataru, BilaliThis research presents the existence and uniqueness of a solution to nonlocal problem for a loaded parabolic equation. The nonlocal condition of first kind is expressed to its equivalent nonlocal condition of second kind, which is necessary for qualitative study about the solvability of the problem. The theoretical analysis of study on existence and uniqueness of a generalized solution to a nonlocal problem is studied using Galerkin method, apriori method to obtain the approximate size of solution, numbers of inequalities and Gronwall’s lemma. The numerical approximation of the problem is obtained by using homotopy analysis method, where the initial base function is determined by using initial condition.Item Effects of chemical reaction on an unsteady hydromagnetic natural convection flow of a rotating and radiating fluid past a vertical porous flat plate in the presence of heat sink(The University of Dodoma, 2018) Asegelile, AlexThe objective of this study is to investigate the effects of chemical reaction on an unsteady hydro - magnetic natural convection heat and mass transfer flow of incompressible, vis-cous, rotating and radiating fluid past an infinite vertical porous flat plate in the presence of heat sink. The Rosseland approximation is used to describe the radiative heat flux for optically thick fluid in the energy equation. The system of non - dimensional partial differential equations governing the flow has been solved numerically by applying the Ritz finite element method. The effects of the various physical parameters describing the flow transport are discussed for Grashof number (Gr > 0), corresponding to cooling of the plate, and Grashof number (Gr < 0), corresponding to heating of the plate. Numerical data for the skin - friction coefficient, Nusselt number and the Sherwood number presented in the tables and then discussed. Keywords: MHD, natural convection, magnetic field, rotating fluid, optically thick fluid.Item Modelling of primary school pupils’ academic performance in Tanzania(The University of Dodoma, 2018) Lusana, Abel M.The foundation of educational development of any country through all ages has been focusing on the quality basic education from which the primary school pupils’ academic performance is of greatest interest. Basing on its important, this study was conducted in order to develop a model for the primary school pupils’ academic performance in Tanzania. The study employed panel longitudinal research design. Secondary data that were used in the study were collected from the President’s Office, Regional Administration and Local Government (PO-RALG), Ministry of Education, Science and Technology (MOEST) and the National Examinations Council of Tanzania (NECTA). Two academic performance simple linear regression models were fitted. The first model involved a number of pupils who had passed the PSLE with time in years while the second model involved number of pupils who had passed the PSLE against the number of pupils who had sat for the PSLE. Both models showed the variables to be linearly related with an increasing trend. Simple linear model involved a number of pupils who had passed the PSLE against the number of pupils who had sat for the PSLE which was found to be the best model which fitted well the data since its projections were far higher valued compared to those for model one (1). Other findings showed that, there was no significant difference of performance between male and female students in three subjects namely Kiswahili, English, and Mathematics. The performance of pupils in English and Mathematics was found to be significantly different from Kiswahili as respectively. Pupils were shown to have performed higher in Kiswahili than in the rest two subjects. The study recommends that more efforts on pupils’ academic performance be put and improved especially on English and Mathematics subjects. Since the number of schools significantly influences students’ performance, it is therefore recommended that ambitious education programmes be advocated in order to improve the quality of education provided.Item Statistical analysis and modeling of prevalence of malaria in Nyasa district-Tanzania(The University of Dodoma, 2018) Msumba, KenethMalaria remains a major cause of morbidity and mortality, leading more than 600 million cases and two million deaths each year Worldwide. Over 90% of these cases occur in sub-Saharan Africa where Falciparum Malaria is pervasive and the major killer of children less than 5 years old. This study was conducted to figure out the demographic factors that influence the prevalence of Malaria in Nyasa District and to assess the level of knowledge and awareness on malaria incurred by the domicile of Nyasa district. A cross-sectional research design was applied and data were collected by systematic random sampling. The demographic factors considered were age of respondent, sex of respondent, place of residence, level of education and level of income. Binary logistic regression models were developed on the available information to assess the effects of malaria on households. Also the awareness and prevention practices were evaluated. The model identifies the prevalence of malaria (proportion of cases of malaria) under the influence of factors in Nyasa District, which will help planners and other stakeholders on how to overcome the problem of malaria. The results show that demographic variables had significant effect on the prevalence of Malaria in Nyasa District. Also an adequate model was suggested using Hosmer and Lemeshow test and the prevalence is predicted. The government, health care NGOs and other stakeholders have to give due attention to improve awareness on malaria and to maintain a hygienic living conditions to the people of Nyasa as to eradicate the disease in the next decade.