Impacts of climate variability and change on rainfed sorghum and maize: implications for food security policy in Tanzania

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dc.contributor.authorMsongaleli, Barnabas M.
dc.contributor.authorRwehumbiza, Filbert
dc.contributor.authorTumbo, Siza D.
dc.contributor.authorKihupi, Nganga
dc.date.accessioned2021-08-31T07:26:41Z
dc.date.available2021-08-31T07:26:41Z
dc.date.issued2015
dc.descriptionFull text article. Also available at https://doi.org/10.5539/jas.v7n5p124en_US
dc.description.abstractConcern about food security has increased because of a changing climate, which poses a great threat to food crop productivity. Climate change projections from the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) and crop models were used to investigate the impacts of climate change on rain-fed cereal production. Calibrated and evaluated crop models simulated maize and sorghum yields over time periods and scenarios across central zone Tanzania with and without adaptation. Simulation outputs without adaptation showed predominant decrease and increase in maize and sorghum yields, respectively. The results showed that maize yields were predicted to decline between 1% and 25% across periods, representative concentration pathways (RCPs) and global circulation models (GCMs). However, sorghum yields were on average predicted to increase between 5% and 21%. Overall when adaptation is incorporated toward mid-century, yields are projected to increase for both crops. The yield projections variation between cereal crops highlights the importance of location and crop specific climate change impact assessments. Despite the uncertainties in predicting the impacts of climate change on rainfed crops, especially on cereals (maize and sorghum) which are important staple food crops in semi-arid Tanzania, the findings of this study enable policy makers to develop plans aimed at sustainable food security. In conclusion, the results demonstrate the presumption that sorghum productivity stands a better chance than maize under prospects of negative impacts from climate change in central zone Tanzania.en_US
dc.identifier.citationMsongaleli, B. M., Rwehumbiza, F., Tumbo, S. D., & Kihupi, N. (2015). Impacts of climate variability and change on rainfed sorghum and maize: implications for food security policy in Tanzania. Journal of Agricultural Science, 7(5).en_US
dc.identifier.otherDOI:10.5539/jas.v7n5p124
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12661/3301
dc.language.isoenen_US
dc.publisherCanadian Center of Science and Educationen_US
dc.subjectAgronomic adaptationen_US
dc.subjectCerealsen_US
dc.subjectClimate changeen_US
dc.subjectPolicyen_US
dc.subjectSimulation modelingen_US
dc.subjectUncertaintyen_US
dc.titleImpacts of climate variability and change on rainfed sorghum and maize: implications for food security policy in Tanzaniaen_US
dc.typeArticleen_US
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