Understanding the poverty dynamics and its determinants in Tanzania.
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Date
2023
Authors
Journal Title
Journal ISSN
Volume Title
Publisher
The University of Dodoma
Abstract
Identification of driving factors that are highly related to poverty dynamics is a crucial aspect of formulating successful policies and strategies intending to end poverty. This study aimed at understanding the nature and the determinants of poverty dynamics in Tanzania. The study used National Panel surveys data to estimate the poverty dynamics in Tanzania. The study estimated the poverty dynamics across years using Markov Probability Model and explores the poverty dynamics across different social groups using descriptive analysis. The study also analyzed the determinants of poverty dynamics in Tanzania using the Multinomial Logit regression Model. The results show that 16.8 per cent of households were non-poor in 2008 but moved to poverty in 2010, 12 per cent of households were poor in 2008 but moved to non-poor in 2010 and 9.6 per cent of households were poor in 2008 but continued to be poor in 2010. Also, 13.2 per cent of households were non-poor in 2010 but dropped to poverty in 2012. The study results indicated households status were dynamic, households moved in and out of poverty over time. However, the study results indicated that household heads with secondary education or tertiary education maintained to be non-poor compared to primary education holder household heads. Moreover, the study results further indicated that a high percentage of poor households were found in rural areas compared to urban areas. The key social-economic determinants of poverty dynamics were household sizes, household head’s education status, household’s head area of residence, household head occupation, electricity connection and ownership of assets. Given this kind of poverty mobility, determining of nature of poverty dynamics and identification of socio-economic covariates of poverty dynamics are important processes in policies and strategies making process to end poverty in the country. From a policy point of view, each poverty trajectory would need different treatments. This means people who lay under chronic poverty need different policies to move them out of poverty and people who fall into transitory or impoverishment poverty would also need different policies.
Description
Master Dissertation (MA Economics)
Keywords
poverty, National Panel surveys, poverty dynamics, Multinomial Logit regression Model
Citation
Mangi, E. P. I. (2023). Understanding the poverty dynamics and its determinants in Tanzania, (Master's Dissertation) The University of Dodoma.